When the Kansas City Chiefs edged out the Indianapolis Colts 23-20 in overtime on Sunday, November 24, 2025, at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, Missouri, no one in the crowd could’ve guessed the real winner wasn’t even on the field. Meanwhile, in Jacksonville, the Jacksonville Jaguars were pulling off a gritty 31-28 victory over the Arizona Cardinals — and suddenly, the entire AFC playoff picture had shifted beneath their feet. The win improved Jacksonville’s record to 7-4, putting them just one game behind the Colts in the AFC South. And with two head-to-head matchups left — on December 15 in Indianapolis and December 29 back home — the Jaguars aren’t just catching up. They’re ready to take over.
The Domino Effect
The Colts entered Week 12 at 8-2, looking every bit the division’s frontrunner. They’d been called "the class of the NFL" by local media just weeks ago. But after leading 20-9 with under nine minutes left, their offense went silent. Jonathan Taylor, their star running back, managed just 3.6 yards per carry on 18 attempts. The Chiefs’ defense, often criticized this season, held firm. And when Patrick Mahomes — who threw zero touchdowns but scrambled for 30 yards and kept drives alive — led a 14-point comeback, the Colts’ aura cracked. The 27-yard field goal by Harrison Butker in overtime didn’t just win a game. It shattered a narrative.
For the Jaguars, it was a gift wrapped in chaos. They’d been written off as playoff longshots just days earlier. Now, they’re tied for the No. 6 seed in the AFC — leapfrogging the Buffalo Bills — and within striking distance of the division lead. "We’re not gonna apologize for winning around here," head coach Liam Coen said Monday. And he meant it. Jacksonville’s offense, which had struggled with consistency in November, finally clicked across all three phases. Quarterback Travis Etienne Jr. rushed for 112 yards and two touchdowns, while rookie receiver Xavier Legette caught a 52-yard bomb that swung momentum late.
Who Else Is Feeling the Shake?
The Houston Texans didn’t sit idle. They beat the Bills 24-20 on the same day, improving to 6-5. Suddenly, the AFC South isn’t a two-team race — it’s a four-team brawl. The Jaguars (7-4), Colts (8-3), Texans (6-5), and Chiefs (6-5) are all within two games of each other. And with the Denver Broncos sitting at 9-2, the AFC’s top seed is slipping away from Indianapolis. The Colts now trail Denver by two games, and with a head-to-head tiebreaker in hand, they can’t afford another slip-up.
Even the Chiefs’ win came at a cost. Injuries to Trey Smith, Rashee Rice, and tight end Noah Gray could derail their Thanksgiving clash against Dallas. That’s a problem for Kansas City — but a blessing for Jacksonville. The Jaguars’ remaining schedule is brutal, but manageable: two games against the Colts, plus a home game against the lowly Cleveland Browns and a road trip to Tennessee — where the Titans are also fading.
The Coen Effect
Liam Coen’s Jaguars were supposed to be rebuilding. They were supposed to be the team waiting for next year. But after a 2-4 start, something changed. The defense tightened. The offensive line stopped collapsing. And the players started believing. Coen, who took over after Doug Pederson’s abrupt departure, has quietly reshaped the culture. "That’s what it looks like when we prepare the way we did," he said after the win. "Cleaner. More physical. More disciplined."
It’s not just about wins. It’s about momentum. The Jaguars haven’t won three straight since 2022. Now, they’re on a two-game streak — both comebacks — and the locker room has a new energy. One veteran linebacker told reporters, "We used to wait for the other team to mess up. Now we make them mess up."
What’s Next?
The December 15 matchup in Indianapolis will be a de facto division final. If the Jaguars win, they’ll be tied for first with two games left. A loss? They’ll need help from the Texans and Chiefs to stay alive. But here’s the twist: the Colts’ offense hasn’t looked the same since Week 9. Their offensive line has been gashed in the last three games, and Taylor’s production has dropped 32% since their 7-1 start. The Jaguars’ defense, led by Rashaan Evans and Davon Hamilton, has improved from 28th to 14th in yards allowed since Week 6. They’re not just hoping for a Colts collapse — they’re preparing to capitalize on it.
Why This Matters
This isn’t just about playoff seeding. It’s about legacy. The Jaguars haven’t won the AFC South since 2017. They haven’t hosted a playoff game since 2018. For a franchise that’s spent the last decade as the NFL’s punching bag, this is the moment they’ve been waiting for. The Colts were supposed to dominate. The Chiefs were supposed to be the AFC’s beacon. But sometimes, the team nobody’s talking about is the one that ends up standing.
Frequently Asked Questions
How did the Jaguars benefit from the Chiefs-Colts game?
The Jaguars improved to 7-4 with a win over the Cardinals, while the Colts’ overtime loss dropped them to 8-3. That cut the division lead to just one game, with two head-to-head matchups remaining. Jacksonville also jumped from No. 7 to No. 6 in the AFC playoff race, passing the Bills and putting them in direct control of their playoff destiny.
What’s the significance of the December 15 and 29 games against the Colts?
Those are the only two remaining matchups between Jacksonville and Indianapolis. Whoever wins both will almost certainly win the AFC South. If the Jaguars split, they’ll need help from the Texans or Chiefs to clinch. But if they sweep — especially if they win in Indianapolis — they’ll be division champions with two games to spare.
Why has the Colts’ offense collapsed in recent weeks?
The Colts’ offensive line has been battered, allowing a league-high 17 sacks over the last three games. Jonathan Taylor’s production has dropped sharply, and quarterback Anthony Richardson has struggled with decision-making under pressure. In overtime against Kansas City, they ran only one play in the final 2:18 — a sign of their offensive stagnation.
Can the Jaguars still make the playoffs if they lose both games to the Colts?
Yes — but it’s tight. If they go 1-1 against Indianapolis and win their other two games (Cleveland and Tennessee), they’d finish 9-8. That’s likely enough for a Wild Card spot, especially if the Bills, Steelers, or Texans stumble. The AFC’s 7th seed currently sits at 7-5, so even a 9-8 record would be competitive.
How does this affect the Chiefs’ playoff chances?
The win improved Kansas City’s record to 6-5 and pushed their playoff probability above 35%. But injuries to key players like Rashee Rice and Noah Gray could hurt them in the stretch run. They still have tough games against Dallas, Buffalo, and the Chargers — and if they lose two of those, they might be on the outside looking in despite the win over the Colts.
Is this the most important season in Jaguars history?
It’s certainly the most important in over a decade. The franchise has missed the playoffs for eight straight seasons. With a new coach, a rising core, and a division race that’s suddenly wide open, this team has a legitimate shot at ending that drought — and potentially winning their first division title since 2017. The pressure is on, but so is the opportunity.